https://beatthegaffer.com A weekly column in the Gaffer's voice -- preview before, verdict after. An editorial product that happens to have a game attached. beatthegaffer.com en-gb The Gaffer hello@beatthegaffer.com The Gaffer false https://beatthegaffer.com/blog/gw1-2026-preview https://beatthegaffer.com/blog/gw1-2026-preview Thu, 13 Aug 2026 09:00:00 GMT Picks are locked. GW1 is here. Before the games start, a few things I am watching. Arsenal at home to Manchester United. This is the fixture I have the most confidence in all week. Arsenal are sharp, organised, and playing with something to prove from last season. United are in transition again. The away end will be noisy but the football will not be. Arsenal to win. I am looking at a 2-0. That is the pick and I am committing to it. Chelsea versus the promoted side on Saturday. This is the fix... https://beatthegaffer.com/blog/twenty-teams-final-word https://beatthegaffer.com/blog/twenty-teams-final-word Wed, 12 Aug 2026 09:00:00 GMT Three days to the season. One sentence per club. On the record. Arsenal: they win the title this year or they never will, and I think they will. Manchester City: twenty points from the last available twenty-four last season, which is why no one writes them off, which is correct. Liverpool: in transition, still dangerous, will not be where the title is decided but will decide where it goes. Chelsea: eight managers in ten years and a squad assembled by committee; they will finish seventh and s... https://beatthegaffer.com/blog/dont-back-these-august https://beatthegaffer.com/blog/dont-back-these-august Tue, 11 Aug 2026 09:00:00 GMT Four days to go. Before I publish my GW1 picks, here are the clubs I am fading in the first month. You have been warned. Manchester United. Every summer there is a new rebuild story. New manager, new signings, new energy. I have heard it nine times now. The structure at that club is still broken. Broken structures produce broken results. They will win some of the games I expect them to lose and that will feel like progress. It is not progress. It is variance. Do not confuse the two. Liverpool.... https://beatthegaffer.com/blog/transfer-window-2026-verdict https://beatthegaffer.com/blog/transfer-window-2026-verdict Sun, 09 Aug 2026 09:00:00 GMT The window closed on Thursday. Here is what I think. Arsenal. Bought a central midfielder and kept everyone who mattered. Quiet window. That is the right window for a title challenger. When you are buying, you are covering a hole. Arsenal have no holes right now. They spent sensibly and they are the better for it. Manchester City. Lost two senior players and replaced them with youth. Gambling on development. City have done this before and it has worked and it has not worked. I think they are s... https://beatthegaffer.com/blog/gw0-2026-breakdown https://beatthegaffer.com/blog/gw0-2026-breakdown Sat, 08 Aug 2026 09:00:00 GMT This is not a preview. This is a record. Everything below is logged before the season starts and I cannot change a word of it once August fifteenth arrives. Title winner: Arsenal. Confidence three. The squad is deeper than it has been. The manager has learned from the near-misses. Liverpool are in transition. City are rebuilding after two key departures. This is Arsenal's window. They will not get another one like it. Top four miss: Tottenham Hotspur. Confidence three. I have said this before ... https://beatthegaffer.com/blog/the-gaffer-system https://beatthegaffer.com/blog/the-gaffer-system Wed, 05 Aug 2026 09:00:00 GMT People ask me how I pick. I will tell you. It is not complicated. But it requires discipline, and discipline is the thing that most pundits do not have. I start with the form number. Not the table. The table lies. Six points from six can mean two comfortable wins or two last-minute scrambles. I want to know the expected goals. I want to know the goals conceded from set pieces, from transitions, from open play. I want to know whether the clean sheets are the result of good goalkeeping or poor fi... https://beatthegaffer.com/blog/gw0-2026-lessons https://beatthegaffer.com/blog/gw0-2026-lessons Wed, 05 Aug 2026 09:00:00 GMT I said five things. Here are five things. One. Liverpool will struggle in August. Not because of Salah -- they replaced him. Because when a team loses a generation-defining player, the first month is always adjustment. The new shape, the new habit, the new way of moving without him. I have watched this happen at every big club for thirty years. Back the teams playing Liverpool at Anfield in August. Note it down. Two. Coventry City will not go straight back down. Every pundit in the country is ... https://beatthegaffer.com/blog/five-calls-i-got-wrong https://beatthegaffer.com/blog/five-calls-i-got-wrong Mon, 03 Aug 2026 09:00:00 GMT I got things wrong last season. This is not news. What matters is knowing which things and why. So here it is. Five calls I got wrong, in writing, before the new season starts. If you are going to beat me, you should know where my mistakes come from. One. I backed Manchester City to win eleven of their first fourteen games. They won seven. I misjudged how much the squad rotation was masking the drop-off in depth. I had the right club and the wrong method. City play a different game when they ar... https://beatthegaffer.com/blog/season-preview-2627 https://beatthegaffer.com/blog/season-preview-2627 Sat, 01 Aug 2026 09:00:00 GMT Right. Season twenty-six, twenty-seven. New clubs, same question. Can you beat me. Three promoted sides this summer. Coventry City, who won the Championship at a canter. Ipswich Town, automatic. Hull City, who needed penalties to get here. I have done my research on all three. Two of them will go straight back down. One of them will surprise everyone. I know which one. You will find out when I publish my GW1 picks. West Ham gone. Burnley gone. Wolves gone. I am not sad about any of them. Wolve... https://beatthegaffer.com/blog/gw10-2024-verdict https://beatthegaffer.com/blog/gw10-2024-verdict Fri, 05 Jun 2026 00:04:42 GMT Right, GW10. Mixed bag, son, mixed bag. Let's start with the good stuff before I have to look in the mirror. Liverpool 2-1 Brighton. Called it, banked it, no fuss. Anyone watching Brighton lately knew they'd turn up at Anfield and have a proper go. Plucky little outfit, them. But Liverpool at home, with that front line clicking? One-nil down at half time was always going to wake them up. I had the score nailed before kick-off and I'll take a bow for that one. Same story with Fulham 2-1 Brentfor... https://beatthegaffer.com/blog/gw9-2024-lessons https://beatthegaffer.com/blog/gw9-2024-lessons Thu, 04 Jun 2026 22:05:47 GMT 1. **HAMMERS DONE UNITED 2-1, CALLED IT** Proper East London business, son, United are a pub team in fancy kit. 2. **CHELSEA 2-1 NEWCASTLE, NAILED ON** Sometimes you just know, and I just knew, simple as that. 3. **ARSENAL 2-2 LIVERPOOL, ROBBED OF THE FIVER** Had the Scousers nicking it, drew instead, still reckon Arsenal bottle the big ones. 4. **BRENTFORD 4-3 IPSWICH, BONKERS** Predicted a routine 2-0 and got a basketball match, the Bees defence is held together with sellotape. 5. **VILLA ... https://beatthegaffer.com/blog/gw9-2024-verdict https://beatthegaffer.com/blog/gw9-2024-verdict Thu, 04 Jun 2026 22:04:38 GMT Right, GW9 done and dusted, and The Gaffer's left the pub with his head held high. Best call of the week? Has to be West Ham doing United dirty, 2-1, just as I called it. Listen, I've been watching that United back four leak goals like a knackered radiator for weeks, and Ten Hag's lot rocking up to the London Stadium was always going to end in tears. The Hammers had been quietly building something nasty at home, and I clocked it. Five points in the bank, thank you very much. Throw in Chelsea ed... https://beatthegaffer.com/blog/gw7-2024-lessons https://beatthegaffer.com/blog/gw7-2024-lessons Thu, 04 Jun 2026 20:04:20 GMT 1. **LIVERPOOL NICKED IT AT PALACE** Called the away win, just gave Salah and co too much credit up top. 2. **BRENTFORD 5-3 WOLVES, ARE YOU HAVING A LAUGH** Had the right winner, never in a million years had eight goals on the coupon. 3. **VILLA 0-0 UNITED, RIVETING STUFF** Backed Emery to do a job, got ninety minutes of two teams scared of their own shadow. 4. **CHELSEA BOTTLED IT AGAINST FOREST AT HOME** Stamford Bridge used to be a fortress, now it's a halfway house for dropped points. 5.... https://beatthegaffer.com/blog/gw7-2024-verdict https://beatthegaffer.com/blog/gw7-2024-verdict Thu, 04 Jun 2026 20:03:12 GMT Right, GW7, let's have it. Ten points on the board and I'll take that all day long, especially with the slop served up at the weekend. Best call? Has to be the Hammers job. Two-one I said, four-one it ended, but I had West Ham battering Ipswich from the off and that's exactly what unfolded. Anyone with eyes could see Ipswich were ripe for a tonking and my mob in claret and blue were due a proper afternoon. Honourable mention for City beating Fulham 3-2 against my 3-1, because Pep's lot always ... https://beatthegaffer.com/blog/gw6-2024-verdict https://beatthegaffer.com/blog/gw6-2024-verdict Thu, 04 Jun 2026 20:02:50 GMT Right, GW6 and the football gods had me by the short and curlies. Let's start with what I nailed, because credit where it's due. Bournemouth over Southampton, 2-0 on the nose for the result, scoreline within touching distance. Three points in the bin and I called it from a mile off. Saints are a pub team in Premier League clobber, simple as. Iraola's lot are organised, hungry, and they smelled blood before kick-off. Didn't need a crystal ball for that one, just a working pair of eyes. Same goes... https://beatthegaffer.com/blog/gw5-2024-lessons https://beatthegaffer.com/blog/gw5-2024-lessons Thu, 04 Jun 2026 18:05:49 GMT 1. **LIVERPOOL 3-0 BOURNEMOUTH, CALLED IT** Anfield doing Anfield things, and yours truly had the scoreline stitched up before kick-off. 2. **CHELSEA BATTERED WEST HAM 3-0** Had the away win, just underestimated how soft the Hammers would roll over at home. 3. **MAN CITY 2-2 ARSENAL, BOTH WALKED AWAY GUTTED** Punted on a City win, ended up with bugger all because Arteta's mob still can't close the deal at the Etihad. 4. **NEWCASTLE MUGGED ME OFF AT FULHAM** Backed the Toon, got a 3-1 the wron... https://beatthegaffer.com/blog/gw4-2024-lessons https://beatthegaffer.com/blog/gw4-2024-lessons Thu, 04 Jun 2026 18:05:33 GMT 1. NEWCASTLE AT MOLINEUX, CALLED IT Wolves 1-2 Newcastle on the nose, sometimes you just smell it. 2. FOREST MUGGED LIVERPOOL AT ANFIELD Had the Reds 3-0, woke up to 0-1, football's a wrong'un. 3. SPURS STILL BOTTLE THE DERBY Predicted Arsenal to nick it, Arsenal nicked it, north London pecking order sorted. 4. BRIGHTON V IPSWICH WAS A STINKER Backed 2-0, got a goalless yawn, sometimes the Seagulls forget their wings. 5. UNITED BATTERED THE SAINTS HARDER THAN EXPECTED Had it 1-2, ended 0-3, ... https://beatthegaffer.com/blog/gw5-2024-verdict https://beatthegaffer.com/blog/gw5-2024-verdict Thu, 04 Jun 2026 18:04:39 GMT **GW5: Five and Alive, Son** Right, settle down. Twenty-five points on the board and I'm walking taller than a Tottenham fan in October, which is to say briefly but with purpose. Let's start with the good stuff, because I've earned it. Three on the nose this week. Liverpool 3-0 Bournemouth was the easiest tenner I never had on. Slot's lot at Anfield against a Cherries side still working out which end they're kicking? Behave. The Saints and Ipswich 1-1 was the kind of pick that makes you look l... https://beatthegaffer.com/blog/gw4-2024-verdict https://beatthegaffer.com/blog/gw4-2024-verdict Thu, 04 Jun 2026 18:04:24 GMT Right, GW4 done and dusted, and the Gaffer's walked out with his pockets jingling but not exactly bulging. Wolves and Newcastle was the call of the week, no question. Called it 1-2 on the nose, five points in the back pocket, lovely jubbly. Anyone watching Wolves this season could see they're leaking goals like a dodgy roof in Bow, and Newcastle were always going to nick it with that forward line. Wasn't rocket science, but you've got to back your gut, and mine was screaming Geordies all week. ... https://beatthegaffer.com/blog/gw2-2024-lessons https://beatthegaffer.com/blog/gw2-2024-lessons Thu, 04 Jun 2026 16:04:00 GMT 1. FULHAM v LEICESTER NAILED ON Called it 2-1 like I was reading the script, easiest fiver of the weekend. 2. BRIGHTON MUGGED ME OFF Backed United at the Amex and the Seagulls turned over, lesson learned son. 3. WEST HAM TURNED UP AT PALACE Had it as a stalemate, Hammers went and won it 2-0, proper slap in the face. 4. CHELSEA WENT NUCLEAR AT WOLVES Six goals at Molineux, I had Chelsea winning but never in a million years like that. 5. SPURS AND CITY KEEP PAYING OUT CRUMBS Right result, wron... https://beatthegaffer.com/blog/gw1-2024-lessons https://beatthegaffer.com/blog/gw1-2024-lessons Thu, 04 Jun 2026 16:03:40 GMT 1. UNITED SCRAPED IT, FULHAM BOTTLED IT Called the win, missed the clean sheet, still trousering three points like a proper villain. 2. LIVERPOOL STROLLED AT PORTMAN ROAD Had the Scousers down for three, they only mustered two, Ipswich can count themselves lucky I was generous. 3. FOREST VS BOURNEMOUTH WAS WRITTEN IN THE STARS Nailed the 1-1 on the nose, sometimes you just smell a dull one coming a mile off. 4. WEST HAM ROLLED OVER FOR VILLA, EXACTLY AS ORDERED 1-2 called to the letter, my Ha... https://beatthegaffer.com/blog/gw2-2024-verdict https://beatthegaffer.com/blog/gw2-2024-verdict Thu, 04 Jun 2026 16:02:52 GMT Well, that was a right kick in the teeth, wasn't it. Let's start with the good news, because there ain't much of it. Fulham over Leicester, 2-1, bang on the money. Five points in the bank and I'll tell you why I knew it. Marco Silva's lot at the Cottage are a proper outfit now, organised, nasty when they need to be, and Leicester are still finding their feet back in the big league. Fulham at home against a promoted side trying to work out which way is up? That was money in the bank before a bal... https://beatthegaffer.com/blog/gw1-2024-verdict https://beatthegaffer.com/blog/gw1-2024-verdict Thu, 04 Jun 2026 16:02:29 GMT Right, season's back and so am I, thank Christ for that. Best call of the week? West Ham one, Villa two. Nailed on. Everyone and their nan was banging on about Moyes 2.0 down at the London Stadium, new signings, fresh start, all that guff. I wasn't having it. Villa under Emery are a proper outfit, organised, ruthless, and they travel like a side that knows what it's doing. West Ham still defend like a pub team after last orders. Five points in the bin, and I'd have taken that bet with me mum's ... https://beatthegaffer.com/blog/gaffer-on-transfers-2026 https://beatthegaffer.com/blog/gaffer-on-transfers-2026 Mon, 25 May 2026 08:02:00 GMT Every summer the same circus. Big names, bigger wages, press conferences in front of sponsor banners. Here is what actually matters. Salah is gone from Liverpool. Nine seasons. Robertson too. Arne Slot has to replace the best player in the league, a left back who has been there a decade, and still be competitive from August. Liverpool's pre-season will tell you everything about whether they are serious or buying time. Manchester City said goodbye to Bernardo Silva and John Stones. The squad Gu... https://beatthegaffer.com/blog/gw0-2026-preview https://beatthegaffer.com/blog/gw0-2026-preview Mon, 25 May 2026 08:01:00 GMT Arsenal. Twenty-two years. Finally. Arteta's side lost five games all season. That is a number that tells you everything. They did not just win it. They ground City down across forty games until City drew at Bournemouth on the final day and handed it over. That is how you win a league title. Now they have to go again. Defending is harder. Everyone knows your patterns. The pressure sits differently. Arsenal have not won back-to-back since the Invincibles, and that was Wenger's greatest side. A... https://beatthegaffer.com/blog/how-to-beat-the-gaffer https://beatthegaffer.com/blog/how-to-beat-the-gaffer Mon, 25 May 2026 08:00:00 GMT Every week I pick the exact score for every Premier League game. Not just the result. The score. Home team goals, away team goals, all of it. Get the exact score and you earn 5 points. Get the result right but the score wrong and you still get 1. Get it wrong entirely and you get nothing. Same rules for me. My picks go live on Friday morning before the first whistle. Yours go in before each game kicks off. You can wait until the last second if you want. I pick the full round in one go. Beat m... https://beatthegaffer.com/blog/premier-league-2026-27-gaffer-verdict https://beatthegaffer.com/blog/premier-league-2026-27-gaffer-verdict Sun, 24 May 2026 20:26:57 GMT Arsenal won it. Good. Now they need to do it again. That is a different game. Title campaigns take something out of a squad. The good ones find what they lost in pre-season. The rest find out in November. City will come. Liverpool will come. One of them will push Arsenal to the final day. The other will finish third and spend the summer telling you they were the better side. Spurs will convince themselves they are in it until March. You will back them at some point. You always do. Not my problem... https://beatthegaffer.com/blog/what-this-is-2026 https://beatthegaffer.com/blog/what-this-is-2026 Sun, 24 May 2026 09:00:00 GMT Right. Before the season starts. Before I pick a single fixture. Before you lot start complaining about my reasoning. Let me tell you what this is. This is not a game with a blog attached to it. This is a column. A proper one. Every gameweek: a preview before the fixtures, picks on the record before a ball is kicked, and a verdict after the results. My reasoning is public. My record is live. If I get it wrong -- and I will get it wrong, because that is football -- it stays up. No deletions. No...