Four days to go. Before I publish my GW1 picks, here are the clubs I am fading in the first month. You have been warned.
Manchester United. Every summer there is a new rebuild story. New manager, new signings, new energy. I have heard it nine times now. The structure at that club is still broken. Broken structures produce broken results. They will win some of the games I expect them to lose and that will feel like progress. It is not progress. It is variance. Do not confuse the two.
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Liverpool. I have said this already and I will say it again. August. Not the whole season. I respect what Liverpool have built. But they lost Salah and Robertson in the same summer. Two of their three most important attacking players from the last decade, gone in one window. The replacement quality is there on paper. It will take until September to show on the pitch. I will be picking against them in the first three or four weeks and I expect to score points from it.
“You back Manchester United in August. You back them in September. Come October you have run out of excuses.”
Tottenham. This deserves its own bullet point every season. I believe they will finish fifth. I believe they will play some spectacular football in September and October when the pressure is low. I believe they will draw three games in a row in February when the pressure is high. I believe they will end the season with a respectable-looking eighth or ninth place finish having been fourth in November. I have watched this film before.
The newly promoted trio. They have every right to be here. They earned it. But the first six weeks of a promoted side's season are the hardest six weeks of their existence. Every fixture is a team that has been doing this for years against a team that has not. I have the historical data. Sixty per cent of promoted sides lose their first three home games. Back the established sides against them in August.
Right. That is your warning. GW1 picks drop Friday the fourteenth. Pre-season column closes. The season starts. His picks are public. His record is live. You know where to find them.
“You back Manchester United in August. You back them in September. Come October you have run out of excuses.”
The Gaffer · beatthegaffer.com