I said five things. Here are five things.
One. Liverpool will struggle in August. Not because of Salah -- they replaced him. Because when a team loses a generation-defining player, the first month is always adjustment. The new shape, the new habit, the new way of moving without him. I have watched this happen at every big club for thirty years. Back the teams playing Liverpool at Anfield in August. Note it down.
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Two. Coventry City will not go straight back down. Every pundit in the country is writing them off. I am not. They won the Championship with ninety-five points. Ninety-five. You do not do that on luck. You do that on a system, a manager, and a squad that believes in both. The jump to the Premier League is brutal. The drop in quality at the bottom is real. But Coventry have something. Give them until Christmas before you make your mind up.
“International breaks ruin form. Ignore what happened before one. I have said this for twenty years.”
Three. Set pieces are worth more than xG in the first six weeks. Data lads will disagree. They are wrong. Pre-season means bad organisation, new faces, systems still being drilled. Teams that can score from corners and free kicks in August win points they have not earned yet. Brighton. Newcastle. Brentford. These are your August banker clubs. Write it down.
Four. The team that won the most ugly games last season will not be in the top four this season. Ugly wins are a sign of momentum, not quality. Momentum runs out. Quality does not. This is a fact of football I have learned from watching it since 1979. Do not back last season's overperformers to maintain it.
Five. There will be a manager sacked before Halloween. There is always a manager sacked before Halloween. If you know which one, you know who not to back in October. I have my suspicions. I am watching three clubs right now who are one bad run from a crisis. I will tell you more in September.
That is your five. GW1 picks Friday the fourteenth of August. Early access on Thursday if you are in the Directors Box. His record is public. His confidence is on every pick. Beat me if you can.
“International breaks ruin form. Ignore what happened before one. I have said this for twenty years.”
The Gaffer · beatthegaffer.com